Sales & Trading · Delta One Financing
Swap unwinds, bilateral novations, and the calculation and expectation of borrow cost — across Interest Rates, FX, Commodities, Credit and Equities.
Generated 2026-07-28 from the EquitySwap warehouse.
Section 1
One equation. Five asset classes. The same trade in five costumes.
Incomplete — data not available· illustrative levels across all five asset classesF = S · exp[ ( r + u − y − b ) · T ]
r funding · u storage · y yield accruing to the holder · b cost of borrowing the asset
| Asset class | Instrument | Funding r | Yield y | Borrow b | Net carry | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | AAPL US | 533bp | 48bp | 35bp | 450bp | contango |
| Interest Rates | UST 10y | 533bp | 425bp | 12bp | 96bp | contango |
| Commodities | WTI CL1 | 533bp | 180bp | 0bp | 473bp | contango |
| FX | EUR/USD | 533bp | 290bp | 25bp | 218bp | contango |
| Credit | IG Corp | 533bp | 520bp | 18bp | -5bp | backwardation |
Equity borrow fee, repo specialness, commodity convenience yield, cross-currency basis and CDS-cash basis are not five phenomena. Each is the market price of a scarce balance sheet standing between a synthetic and a physical position. Read the borrow column down: when one widens, the others usually are too.
A desk that hedges its equity financing without watching the cross-currency basis is hedging one leg of the same trade.
Section 2
Post-LIBOR, every collateralised derivative discounts on the OIS curve of its collateral currency. Unwind PV, novation fee, cross-currency basis and CVA all consume discount factors from the same object, so an error here biases all four the same way — the hardest kind to notice.
Observed data· FRED Treasury constant maturity| Tenor | Par OIS rate | Bootstrapped DF | Zero rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.11% | 0.959965 | 4.09% |
| 2y | 4.31% | 0.917877 | 4.28% |
| 3y | 4.35% | 0.878437 | 4.32% |
| 5y | 4.41% | 0.803144 | 4.38% |
| 10y | 4.67% | 0.627350 | 4.66% |
Bootstrapped by solving S · Σ τᵢ · DFᵢ = 1 − DFₙ at each pillar. The test suite asserts the curve reprices its own input quotes to within 1e-6 — if it does not, every PV downstream is wrong.
SOFR − EFFR: 1.0bp — secured minus unsecured. The cleanest free read on whether funding stress is about collateral scarcity or about credit.
Section 3
Covered interest parity says a fully hedged foreign investment must earn the domestic rate. It does not hold, and the gap is a direct charge on a cross-currency financing book.
Incomplete — data not available· spot from ECB reference rates (real); SOFR/€STR liveF = S · (1 + rdom·τ) / (1 + rfor·τ)
| Tenor | Spot | Parity forward | Market forward | Basis | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25y | 1.1377 | 1.1467 | 1.1472 | -17.8bp | 17.8bp premium to obtain USD via the FX swap market versus the interest differential |
| 0.50y | 1.1377 | 1.1556 | 1.1569 | -21.9bp | 21.9bp premium to obtain USD via the FX swap market versus the interest differential |
| 1.00y | 1.1377 | 1.1732 | 1.1761 | -25.1bp | 25.1bp premium to obtain USD via the FX swap market versus the interest differential |
| 2.00y | 1.1377 | 1.2072 | 1.2122 | -21.5bp | 21.5bp premium to obtain USD via the FX swap market versus the interest differential |
| Link | Mechanism | Where it shows up |
|---|---|---|
| OIS → everything | collateral currency sets the discount curve | unwind PV, novation fee, CVA |
| Repo ↔ equity borrow | both price specific-security scarcity vs generic collateral | specialness = borrow fee |
| Xccy basis ↔ funding | CIP deviation is the price of balance sheet | funding-currency choice on a TRS |
| Credit → novation | counterparty CDS drives CVA | largest term in a novation fee |
| Convenience yield ↔ dividend | both are non-cash returns to the physical holder | forward curve shape |
Section 4
Early termination of an equity TRS has four components, and the third is the one naive implementations omit: the present value of the off-market spread over the remaining life.
Incomplete — data not available· methodology per docs/METHODOLOGY.md| Component | Amount (EUR) |
|---|---|
| Equity leg P&L since reset | 3,960,674 |
| Dividend accrual (net of WHT) | 682,479 |
| Financing accrual | −525,667 |
| Off-market spread PV | 396,983 |
| Hedge liquidation slippage | −312,914 |
| Borrow release | 0 |
| Termination value | 4,201,556 |
As the equity-leg receiver you pay the spread. A contracted spread below market is therefore an asset: terminating surrenders 36bp a year for the residual life, and you must be compensated. Getting this backwards quotes the unwind in the wrong direction.
| Asset class | Event | Trades | Notional capped |
|---|---|---|---|
| EQUITIES | NEW | 4,903,915 | 1,013 |
| EQUITIES | TERMINATION | 384,414 | 13 |
| EQUITIES | CORRECTION | 92,340 | 81 |
| EQUITIES | OTHER | 5,146 | 4 |
| EQUITIES | AMENDMENT | 77 | 0 |
| EQUITIES | EXERCISE | 7 | 0 |
| EQUITIES | NOVATION | 4 | 0 |
DTCC records the lifecycle in two independent fields — Action type
(NEWT/MODI/TERM) and Event type (TRAD/NOVA/ETRM). A novation
prints as Action=TERM, Event=NOVA, so classifying on Action
alone collapses every novation into the unwind bucket and reports zero.
Capped notionals are right-censored (DTCC reports large block sizes as “N+”), so size distributions must not be averaged naively.
Section 5
Three roles: the Transferor leaves, the Transferee steps in, and the Remaining Party stays — and must consent, because their credit exposure just changed. The fee is the mark plus everything that changes when the counterparty does.
Incomplete — data not available· ISDA novation framework| Component | Amount |
|---|---|
| MTM (mid) | 1,842,000 |
| Δ CVA — counterparty credit | −428,374 |
| Δ FVA — funding cost | −147,155 |
| Δ MVA — initial margin funding | −43,542 |
| Δ CSA — collateral terms | −182,639 |
| Bid-offer on residual risk | −135,000 |
| Total novation fee | 905,291 |
The commercial question. Unwinding and rebooking crosses the bid-offer twice and prints two trades. A novation crosses it once.
| Path | Cost |
|---|---|
| Novation fee | 905,291 |
| Unwind + rebook | 734,257 |
| Difference | 171,034 (22.8bp) |
On liquid names the gap is small. On wide, illiquid or hard-to-borrow underliers it dominates — which is precisely when a client asks.
Section 6
| Convention | Where | Formula |
|---|---|---|
| Fee-based | International | cost = MV × fee × τ (ACT/360) |
| Rebate-based | US, cash collateral | rebate = benchmark − fee; cost = MV × (benchmark − rebate) × τ |
A negative rebate — the fee exceeding the benchmark, so the borrower pays rather than earns on their cash — is the definitional marker of a hard-to-borrow special.
| Method | Fee | Confidence | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Options Parity | 24bp | 0.80 | market-implied from listed options |
| Trs Implied | 480bp | 0.65 | TRS 520bp less funding 20bp, balance sheet 15bp, div risk 5bp |
| Utilisation Model | 88bp | 0.35 | modelled from 88.0% utilisation; supply estimate is coarse |
| Consensus (HTB) | 201bp | ±211bp | estimators disagree — likely a genuine special |
Options put-call parity carries the most weight because the borrow is embedded in listed option prices whether anyone is looking or not: a market maker short the call and long the put is synthetically short the stock and must borrow it. C − P = S·e−(q+b)T − K·e−rT, solved for b.
Section 7
Borrow behaves like none of the standard processes on its own: it mean-reverts as supply responds to price, jumps on dateable events, and has a fat right tail when shorts cannot exit.
Incomplete — data not available· mean reversion + event overlay + squeeze tail; see METHODOLOGY| Horizon | Expected fee | 95th percentile | Squeeze probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | 500bp | 1,807bp | 45% |
| 30d | 835bp | 3,742bp | 45% |
| 60d | 1,047bp | 5,417bp | 45% |
| 90d | 1,035bp | 5,908bp | 45% |
Current fee: 520bp
| When | Event | Fee multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| T+12 | index rebalance | ×1.80 |
| T+34 | dividend record date | ×1.30 |
Index rebalances, dividend record dates (dividend-arbitrage demand), M&A, lockup expiries and convertible issuance all produce predictable, dateable spikes. This is what makes borrow forecastable in a way rates are not.
High utilisation and high days-to-cover — both, multiplicatively. A crowded short that can exit in a day is not a squeeze; a moderate short that needs two weeks to cover is. The tail is modelled asymmetrically because fees can multiply in a squeeze but cannot fall below the GC floor.
Where a term borrow market exists, the forward rate follows the same no-arbitrage logic as a forward interest rate — the market's own expectation, and the cleanest possible input to this section.
Section 8 · Required
What is observed, what is inferred, and what you should not claim.
| Table | Rows | From | To | Stale (d) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| borrow_estimates | 0 | — | — | — | EMPTY |
| commodity_prices | 11,840 | 2015-01-01 | 2026-07-20 | 8 | OK |
| credit_spreads | 8,656 | 2023-07-25 | 2026-07-23 | 5 | OK |
| equity_prices | 0 | — | — | — | EMPTY |
| fx_spot | 124,320 | 2014-12-31 | 2026-07-24 | 4 | OK |
| positioning | 50,000 | 2023-08-22 | 2026-07-21 | 7 | OK |
| rates_observations | 86,190 | 2015-01-01 | 2026-07-24 | 4 | OK |
| sdr_trades | 5,385,903 | 2014-11-20 | 2026-07-24 | 4 | OK |
| short_interest | 0 | — | — | — | EMPTY |
| Limit | Consequence |
|---|---|
| No free borrow-rate API | All borrow figures are INFERRED from options parity, TRS basis and a utilisation model. Never present as observed. |
| ICE BofA credit history capped | FRED serves a rolling 3-year window since April 2026. Longer history needs an ICE licence. |
| DTCC retention ~366 days | Data from 2023-12-29 only. No multi-cycle history. |
| DTCC notionals right-censored | Block sizes reported as “N+”. Do not average naively. |
| ECB FX is a reference fix | Business days only, once daily. Fine for revaluation, wrong for execution. |
| FINRA short interest lags | Twice monthly with a settlement lag — always stale versus the loan market. |
| CVA is order-of-magnitude | Credit-triangle hazard rate and a diffusion EPE. Defensible for a fee negotiation, not a regulatory number. |
Generated by equityswap deck on 2026-07-28. Methodology:
docs/METHODOLOGY.md. Sources and quotas:
docs/DATA_SOURCES.md. Redistribution terms:
docs/DATA_LICENSING.md.